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    <description>Applied research in probabilistic forecasting, decision intelligence, and system design.</description>
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      <title><![CDATA[State Variables and Leading Indicators: A Design Distinction for Retrieval Systems]]></title>
      <link>https://42analytics.co.uk/research/2026-state-variables-leading-indicators</link>
      <guid>https://42analytics.co.uk/research/2026-state-variables-leading-indicators</guid>
      <description><![CDATA[A highly correlated variable can still be the wrong thing to put in your retrieval geometry. Understanding why requires separating two categories that most feature-engineering frameworks conflate.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <author>Pete Milne</author>
      <category>decision-geometry</category>
      <category>feature-engineering</category>
      <category>retrieval</category>
      <category>forecasting</category>
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      <title><![CDATA[Probabilistic Forecasting in Volatile Commodity Markets]]></title>
      <link>https://42analytics.co.uk/research/2025-probabilistic-forecasting-commodity-markets</link>
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      <description><![CDATA[Why single-point forecasts fail in volatile markets and how probabilistic methods — calibrated intervals, regime detection, and honest uncertainty accounting — produce more actionable intelligence.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <author>Pete Milne</author>
      <category>probabilistic-forecasting</category>
      <category>commodity-markets</category>
      <category>decision-systems</category>
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      <title><![CDATA[Decision Intelligence for Complex Systems]]></title>
      <link>https://42analytics.co.uk/research/2025-decision-intelligence-complex-systems</link>
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      <description><![CDATA[Most analytics tools optimise for insight production rather than decision support. This piece examines the distinction and what it means to design systems around the decisions that actually matter.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 28 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <author>Pete Milne</author>
      <category>decision-systems</category>
      <category>system-design</category>
      <category>analytics</category>
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      <title><![CDATA[Analogue Search in Well Planning: Beyond Simple Similarity]]></title>
      <link>https://42analytics.co.uk/research/2024-analogue-search-well-planning</link>
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      <description><![CDATA[Analogue wells are the foundation of drilling difficulty estimation and cost modelling. This piece examines what makes a good analogue, why naive similarity metrics fail, and how to build analogue search that is actually useful.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Sat, 05 Oct 2024 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <author>Pete Milne</author>
      <category>well-planning</category>
      <category>energy</category>
      <category>similarity-search</category>
      <category>strata</category>
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