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Most analytics optimise for the appearance of certainty. We design for uncertainty.
42Analytics develops probabilistic reasoning methods for industries where decisions are consequential, uncertainty is structural, and the cost of being wrong is asymmetric. Every product is evidence that the methodology works.
What we do
Three interconnected practices built on a single conviction: that uncertainty should be made explicit, not hidden.
Consulting
Technical leadership for data-intensive projects. System design, model architecture, and decision framework development for energy and commodity businesses.
Research
Applied research in probabilistic forecasting, regime detection, and decision intelligence. Published openly and grounded in production systems.
Products
Focused tools where probabilistic reasoning is central, not incidental. FishFacts and Strata are the current generation.
Products
View all →FishFacts
Day-ahead probabilistic price forecasting for Scottish demersal fish markets. Calibrated prediction intervals at species and grade level, with an honest benchmark track record.
Strata
Well planning and drilling intelligence for complex energy systems. Analogue search, difficulty modelling, and campaign-scale uncertainty analysis.
Research
All articles →18 July 2026
State Variables and Leading Indicators: A Design Distinction for Retrieval Systems
A highly correlated variable can still be the wrong thing to put in your retrieval geometry. Understanding why requires separating two categories that most feature-engineering frameworks conflate.
12 March 2025
Probabilistic Forecasting in Volatile Commodity Markets
Why single-point forecasts fail in volatile markets and how probabilistic methods — calibrated intervals, regime detection, and honest uncertainty accounting — produce more actionable intelligence.
28 January 2025
Decision Intelligence for Complex Systems
Most analytics tools optimise for insight production rather than decision support. This piece examines the distinction and what it means to design systems around the decisions that actually matter.
Evidence
Full record →Strata
Drilling Campaign Optimisation with Strata
How a North Sea operator reduced well planning cycle time by 40% and improved cost estimate accuracy through systematic analogue search and difficulty modelling.
FishFacts
Forecasting Scottish Demersal Fish Markets with FishFacts
How we built and benchmarked a probabilistic day-ahead forecasting system for Scotland's largest demersal fish auctions — and what honest performance evaluation revealed about the limits and potential of the approach.
Philosophy
Most analytics tools optimise for the appearance of certainty. They produce dashboards that look authoritative, forecasts expressed as single numbers, and models that hide their assumptions. This feels useful. It rarely is.
The systems we build do the opposite. Uncertainty is represented honestly — as distributions, scenarios, and explicit probability ranges. The assumptions inside models are surfaced, not buried. Decisions are treated as first-class objects, not outputs.
We believe the gap between analytics and decision intelligence is not technical. It is a design choice.
About 42Analytics →Get in touch
Working on a complex data problem?
We work with a small number of clients at a time to ensure quality. If you are building decision systems in energy, commodities, or adjacent industries, we would like to hear about it.
info@42analytics.co.uk