FishFacts
Live product
Market forecasting for Scottish demersal auctions.
Demersal fish prices are volatile by structure: volume is determined by what vessels land, demand is driven by downstream commitments, and the two sides of the auction have no coordination mechanism. FishFacts applies probabilistic forecasting to this problem honestly — calibrated intervals, species-level resolution, and a benchmark track record that is part of the product.
Built for
- ✓Fish merchants and auction buyers
- ✓Vessel owners and skippers planning landings
- ✓Processing companies managing raw material costs
- ✓Market analysts in the seafood supply chain
Standard market intel
- ×Word of mouth and informal price views
- ×No calibration history
- ×Market-wide averages only
- ×No uncertainty quantification
FishFacts
- ✓Probabilistic day-ahead distributions
- ✓Validated calibration track record
- ✓Species and grade resolution
- ✓Explicit prediction intervals
Capabilities
Day-ahead probabilistic price forecasts
H1 through H20 forecasts — one to twenty trading days ahead — at species and grade level. Each forecast is a calibrated distribution, not a point estimate. The uncertainty is shown, not hidden.
Calibrated prediction intervals
Conformal prediction intervals with empirically validated coverage. When the model says 80%, it has been right approximately 80% of the time, out of sample. Calibration is a design goal, not an afterthought.
Multi-market coverage
Live forecasts for Peterhead (SWFPA) — Scotland's largest demersal fish market — and Shetland (SSA). Both markets share a common geometry framework, making cross-market patterns visible.
Analogue-based reasoning
Each forecast is grounded in historical auction days with comparable market geometry: price distributions, volume patterns, and environmental conditions. The analogues are auditable, not hidden inside a black-box model.
Honest benchmark tracking
All forecasts are evaluated against a naive baseline at species and grade level. The performance history is part of the product — not a summary statistic, a full out-of-sample record across every species, grade, and horizon.
Species-level resolution
Separate forecasts for Haddock, Cod, Whiting, Coley, Hake, Monkfish, Lemon Sole, and others, at the species-grade level where data supports it. Market-wide averages conceal the information that matters for buying and selling decisions.
Case study
Forecasting Scottish Demersal Fish Markets
How we built and benchmarked FishFacts across Scotland's largest demersal auctions — including what honest, species-level evaluation revealed about the limits and performance of the approach.
Read the case study →Ready to try FishFacts?