Research & Writing
Research
Applied research in probabilistic forecasting, decision intelligence, and system design. Grounded in production systems and real decisions.
18 July 2026
Research
State Variables and Leading Indicators: A Design Distinction for Retrieval Systems
A highly correlated variable can still be the wrong thing to put in your retrieval geometry. Understanding why requires separating two categories that most feature-engineering frameworks conflate.
12 March 2025
Research
Probabilistic Forecasting in Volatile Commodity Markets
Why single-point forecasts fail in volatile markets and how probabilistic methods — calibrated intervals, regime detection, and honest uncertainty accounting — produce more actionable intelligence.
28 January 2025
Research
Decision Intelligence for Complex Systems
Most analytics tools optimise for insight production rather than decision support. This piece examines the distinction and what it means to design systems around the decisions that actually matter.
5 October 2024
Research
Analogue Search in Well Planning: Beyond Simple Similarity
Analogue wells are the foundation of drilling difficulty estimation and cost modelling. This piece examines what makes a good analogue, why naive similarity metrics fail, and how to build analogue search that is actually useful.