Research & Writing
Research
Research and design notes on forecasting, evaluation and system architecture. Product implementations and research proposals are described with their scope and limitations.
18 July 2026
Research
State Variables and Leading Indicators: A Design Question for Retrieval Systems
A correlated feature can still make analogue retrieval worse. How to test whether a signal belongs in the distance measure, a correction layer, or neither.
12 March 2025
Research
Probabilistic Forecasting in Volatile Commodity Markets
A forecast range is a claim that needs testing. Why baselines, evaluation scope and measured coverage matter in commodity forecasting.
28 January 2025
Research
Decision Intelligence for Complex Systems
Most analytics tools optimise for insight production rather than decision support. This piece examines the distinction and what it means to design systems around the decisions that actually matter.
5 October 2024
Research
Analogue Search in Well Planning: Beyond Simple Similarity
What makes a historical well relevant to a planning question? A design note on analogue selection, with the current Strata prototype and its limits.