Evidence
The validation record.
Every claim on this site has somewhere to go. Every result links to the methodology behind it. Every case study includes scope conditions — where the approach works and where it does not.
We do not distinguish between results and failures. We document both.
FishFacts · Updated daily
Peterhead demersal fish markets
76,579
forecasts verified
each tested against real auction prices, May 2019 – Jul 2026
67%
directional accuracy
correctly called price direction, H3–H10, vs 50% by chance
+13.5%
ahead of no-change
more accurate than assuming today's price holds, H5–H10
82.2%
price range reliability
actual prices landed within forecast range — target 80%
All figures are out-of-sample results across 110 species-grade combinations, tested against real Peterhead auction prices from May 2019 to present. No cherry-picking of species or horizons. The record updates automatically after every trading day.
Full species-level record, updated daily →Validation principles
Hold-out validation
All performance claims are validated on data the model has never seen. In-sample fit is not evidence.
Scope conditions
Every result comes with explicit scope conditions — the market regimes, data volumes, and operational constraints under which it applies.
Published failure modes
When the methodology breaks down, we document it. The beef post-2021 regime degradation is in our research. The Q1 2022 lamb anomaly is in our case study.
Delivery records
Technical accounts of production systems. What was built, how it was evaluated, what the results were, and what the known limitations are. Clients are anonymised unless they have agreed otherwise.
Strata
Drilling Campaign Optimisation with Strata
How a North Sea operator reduced well planning cycle time by 40% and improved cost estimate accuracy through systematic analogue search and difficulty modelling.
FishFacts
Forecasting Scottish Demersal Fish Markets with FishFacts
How we built and benchmarked a probabilistic day-ahead forecasting system for Scotland's largest demersal fish auctions — and what honest performance evaluation revealed about the limits and potential of the approach.
Method
Understand the methodology
Decision Geometry — the retrieval-based approach underlying all 42Analytics products. How market states become geometric objects, how analogues are retrieved, and how forecasts are validated.
Read the method →